Russia and China's Interest in North Africa and the Sahel: Implications for the UK's Security Engage

When considering the threats posed by Russia and China, one thinks of the eastern flanks of the Euro-Atlantic, or the first and second island chains in Asia; one does not think of Africa.

Africa has become an area of significant interest for Russia and China. Russia’s current war in Ukraine and the chronic problem of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, should not avert the UK’s eyes from Africa. Instability caused by Russian Private Military Contractors (PMCs), Russian arms in North Africa, or deep-water ports built by the Chinese, all directly impact the UK’s strategic interests.

A reduction in the West’s, and the UK’s, involvement in Africa, coupled with emerging terrorist organisations and regional instabilities, has provided opportunities for the UK’s adversaries. Simply put, the UK needs to increase its security engagement in North Africa and the Sahel to curb and understand Russia and China on Europe’s southern flank.

At its closest point, Africa is just 9 miles (14km) from Europe. From the northern most point of Morocco, across the Mediterranean sits Gibraltar - British territory. Southern Europe, North Africa, and the Mediterranean, is, and has been, crucial for the defence of European nations. In the Second World War, for example, some of the most strategically important operations took place in this region. The allies fought against Rommel in the deserts of North Africa and the British launched maritime operations from the Mediterranean into southern Europe; an area Winston Churchill labelled “the soft underbelly”.

Just as Germany did, Russia and China are using North Africa to further their own interests. Five countries make up the band of North Africa. Two of these countries are the biggest importers of Russian arms in Africa: Algeria and Egypt. Libya has had Russian mercenaries from Wagner Group operating inside its borders.

Russian arms in North Africa create problems for the UK. In Libya, the PMC Wagner Group has been established for some time. It has imported Russian military equipment and has freedom of movement, particularly in the east of the country. Precise details on Russian military assets in country are unknown. But, Russian fighter jets, Russian anti-access area denial (A2AD) devices and suspected ground launched missiles are all present. Russia has effectively extended its military capability to “the soft underbelly” of Europe. In theory, Russian fighter jets, GPS jamming devices and ground launched missiles are all pointing into the Mediterranean. A frog uses a lily pad to move itself around a pond; Russia is doing the same with Libya. China is also a profound player in the game for strategic positioning in North Africa. It has recently ratified a deal with Morocco to build a “Smart City” in Tangier, a city on Morocco’s northern coast. This project will involve 200 Chinese companies building a variety of industries, but most importantly: electronic information. Chinese “smart cities” or infrastructure projects often contain intelligence gathering technology. Thinking of the Gibraltar strait as a gate, makes Gibraltar and Morocco the gate masters. Now, one of the gate masters could have a Chinese intelligence and data gathering capability.

A human falling from height wants to be caught. They might have a preference as to who would catch them; but ultimately will accept anyone who stands underneath willing to save them. The same can be said for countries in Africa, particularly in the Sahel. Both political and economic instabilities and climate change affect Sahelian countries. External support is therefore required. Insufficient support from the West has left some of these countries turning to Russia and China. The instabilities, in turn, are causing problems which are leading into wider issues; issues that are causing problems for countries outside of their continental boundaries. Countries such as the UK. Terrorism and migrant flows from Africa cause a rise in far-right politics in Europe – a political trend which is actively supported (in some cases) by Russia.

The worsening conditions in Mali in the past decade has seen it hit with multiple coup d’états and has become fertile ground for Violent Extremist Organisations (VEOs). Under OPERATION BARKHANE, the French military were conducting unilateral operations to suppress VEOs in Mali. There is also a UN peacekeeping mission, in which the UK has less than 500 troops. However, the French have recently withdrawn from Mali and their mission fighting and suppressing terrorism ended. A void was left. Terrorism flourished and Malian stability worsened – Mali was falling and needed catching.

In December 2021 Wagner Group signed a deal with Mali to help the fight against VEOs. Since then, accounts of human rights abuses and unlawful killings have all been speculated. This has caused a rapid increase in the number of immigrants fleeing Mali, creating a second order of effects. Mali is only one country removed from the Mediterranean. Illegal refugee routes and porous borders mean that these refugees attempt to flee to neighbouring countries, such as Mauritania (a NATO partner), and Europe. Whilst historically being a Francophone problem, the dominos that fall out of Mali into nearby countries will start creating security problems for the UK.

China uses a variety of methods to increase its influence in Africa. For China, Africa has one quality of particular interest: geography. Its west coast facing the Atlantic Ocean, its east coast looking into the Indian Ocean, and to the north the Mediterranean.

China’s delivery of influence varies; most commonly through the Belt and Roads Initiative (BRI), but also through donation of COVID vaccines, and has its only foreign military base in Africa – Djibouti, on the east coast.

Understanding the methods in which China delivers and subsequently spreads its sphere of influence, will allow the UK to act more efficiently. China looks to buy, or have permission to, fishing rights in a country’s waters. This allows them a constant presence of a (large) fishing fleet. The vessels could host surveillance and intelligence equipment supporting Chinese operations. This is mirrored through China’s development of ports. Through building these ports in African nations and having certain rights of access to them, China can effectively bypass global checkpoints. These seemingly innocuous infrastructure projects are effectively giving China’s Navy and underwater fleet a global reach.

Summary:

Africa’s geography makes it strategically invaluable. It is a cross junction to the globe; knowledge of which Russia and China are capitalising on. The West’s, and particularly the UK’s, insufficient engagement in Africa has put UK interests at home and abroad vulnerable. Russia is doing so by shrewd placement of troops, weapon systems and A2AD equipment. Capitalising on a retreating West, it’s filling gaps and supporting countries in need. China is incrementally extending its economic footprint, its strategic surveillance and ability to move freely around the maritime roads of the world.

Recommendations: The UK should increase its defence and security engagement across all North African nations. Large, multilateral military exercises with host nations will help provide an insight, and therefore garner a better understanding of the extent of activity from Russia and China – and at best, deny them the space and freedom to conduct work which is against the UK’s interests. A consistent small military team presence, with regular touchpoints, will enable the UK to fulfil security requirements from these countries – denying Russia and China the ability.

In particular, the UK should upscale the deployment of British troops to Mali. UK troops aggressively fighting and supressing terrorism in Mali will provide security both regionally in the Sahel (and subsequently countries in the surrounding area of interest to the UK), but also domestically in the UK itself. Mali’s proximity to the Mediterranean also means UK military assets would be upstream of threats emanating from further south in Africa. Underpinning all of this, shows the UK’s commitment to the region.